It's not just China and Brazil: from Mexico to Korea, the big beasts of tomorrow's world are already roaring. The story hits the headlines every day. How China has become the world's second largest economy. How Russian money has transformed British football.
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The era of easy money and easy growth is over. China, in particular, will soon slow, but its place will not necessarily be taken by Brazil, Russia or India, all of which Ruchir Sharma shows have weaknesses and difficulties often overlooked in the inflated expectations and emerging markets mania of the past decade. Scott Levin hopes that Sharma is putting his money where his mouth is, because many readers certainly will be. Ruchir Sharma. Allen Lane. May Find this book:.
The term has symbolized the shifting of economic power away from the previously stalwart developed nations of the G7 towards new markets where financial returns are bountiful and the potential for growth outwardly limitless. Or so it appeared before Ruchir Sharma turned this not so old paradigm on its head in Breakout Nations.
When his day job, as the head of Emerging Market Equities at Morgan Stanley, requires jet setting around the world to advise Vladimir Putin, partying-it-up at posh clubs on the Bosporus, getting ferried through Brazil via helicopter, and most assuredly getting well compensated for it; it is a remarkable achievement that he has been able to publish such a fine book. Sharma has composed what accounts to a catalogue of more than two dozen developing nations, most of which have achieved remarkable growth over the last decade.
Sharma unequivocally refutes any inkling that growth will continue unhindered as wealth accumulates, especially in the BRIC nations, and is particularly harsh in his judgment of Brazil and India. Beginning, where else, but China, Sharma stresses the importance of good governance, not one particular form of government, and emphatically states that a political leader that finds success in the economy will find success in politics; sometimes despite themselves.
Here, Mexico and India fail to hold serve. Also failing to make the cut of breakout nation status are Vietnam, Russia, and South Africa, albeit for different reasons. While Russia failed to invest its rubles from the oil and gas boom properly, Vietnam dropped the economic baton of authoritative communism by failing to build roads and basic infrastructure to harness its potential.
Sharma even throws a bone to the United States, who he believes will continue to lead the world in technological innovation despite the ubiquitous prognosis of its impending doom. Like a phoenix out of the wreckage of Japanese occupation and a violent civil war, South Korea continues to reinvent itself in the face of adversity. Where the Japanese chose to artificially maintain their failed institutions, the Koreans scorched the earth to return bigger and stronger.
As a large institutional investor with the power to act on his convictions, lets hope that Sharma is putting his money where his mouth is, because many readers certainly will be.
Scott has studied counter-insurgency at the US National Defense University and has been a fellow with the bipartisan group Partnership for a Secure America. Read more reviews by Scott. Search for:. Blog Admin October 4th, About the author Blog Admin.
Book Review: Breakout Nations: In Pursuit of the Next Economic Miracles by Ruchir Sharma
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In his day job, Sharma is head of emerging market equities and global macro at Morgan Stanley Investment Management. The new rule is to forecast so far in the future, no one will know you got it wrong. Ruchir Sharma does neither. The next economic success stories will not be where we think they are.